Erdogan and Putin’s Meeting in Sochi: Balancing Acts and Geopolitical Shifts

In a diplomatic landscape fraught with complexities, the recent meeting between Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Russian resort town of Sochi highlighted the intricate tightrope Erdogan walks in balancing relations between Russia and the West.

Hours before this high-stakes encounter, Moscow’s forces had launched a drone attack on Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, causing damage to crucial grain infrastructure. This move added an extra layer of tension to the meeting, given the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Just a few months ago, there were signs in the West that President Erdogan was distancing himself from what they saw as his overly friendly ties with President Putin. Turkey had allowed celebrated Ukrainian fighters to return to the battlefield, which prompted Russia to accuse Turkey of violating an agreement. Additionally, Erdogan had dropped his resistance to Sweden’s inclusion in NATO, bolstering the military alliance aimed at countering Russian influence.

However, any perception of a significant shift in Erdogan’s delicate balancing act between Russia and the West seemed to dissipate during the Sochi meeting. Erdogan and Putin stood together, reaffirming their commitment to expanding cooperation between their nations.

During the meeting, the leaders discussed various issues, including economic collaboration, Russia’s construction of a nuclear power plant on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, and plans to turn Turkey into an international transit hub for Russian gas.

Even a contentious geopolitical matter was broached—the potential resumption of an agreement to permit the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. While no concrete progress was announced, this discussion marked a significant point of negotiation. Russia had withdrawn from the agreement in July, citing unmet expectations, despite the deal having been brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

Erdogan’s presence in Sochi underscored his role as a leader of a NATO member who is willing to deviate from the alliance’s consensus when he deems it in Turkey’s best interest.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 18 months ago, deciphering the dynamics of Erdogan and Putin’s relationship has been a puzzle for Western policymakers grappling with the complex diplomacy surrounding the conflict.

In the eyes of the West, Putin is regarded as the antagonist in the conflict, and NATO members have worked to impede Russia’s military efforts and weaken its economy through sanctions.

Erdogan, however, has adopted a more nuanced stance. While condemning Russia’s invasion and providing aid to Ukraine, he has concurrently expanded Turkey’s economic ties with Russia and referred to Putin as “my friend.” This diplomatic strategy has positioned Turkey uniquely, enabling it to play a role in brokering prisoner exchanges and the grain agreement, which has facilitated food deliveries to impoverished nations.

Yet, Erdogan’s refusal to fully isolate Putin has left some NATO allies frustrated, prompting private speculation about his true allegiances.

The Sochi meeting, with its commitment to cooperation and dialogue, serves as a reminder that Erdogan remains a pivotal figure in the complex geopolitics of the region, capable of influencing and mediating in conflicts that have far-reaching implications for both Turkey and the world.